4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,530 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,610/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,831
Tax + insurance
−$604
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$758
Net cashflow
$-583/mo
Annual
$-6,997/yr
Cap rate
5.00%
Cash-on-cash
-4.63%
DSCR
0.79
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$151,172
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $540k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-583 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $437k (19.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (33.1% below list).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($524k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $361k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#393 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: South River High (math 70% / reading 77%, grade B+, #30 of 222 statewide, top 14%, 1,649 students, 19% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+45 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anne Arundel County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $355k; list at $540k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Mayo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RQ1222ECEMTQXF
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29