4014 Cottage Way

Lawrence, PA 15017

$359,990D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,927 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$600
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $-137/mo
• Annual: $-1,644/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $100,797

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $298k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,164 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• South Fayette Township SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #12 of 539 in PA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Fayette Intermediate Sch (math 71% / reading 86%, grade A, #60 of 1,518 statewide, top 4%, 838 students, 13% FRL); South Fayette Ms (math 57% / reading 85%, grade A, #10 of 512 statewide, top 2%, 802 students, 13% FRL); South Fayette Twp Hs (math 85%, 1,074 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.