4000 Round Lake Rd #106

Keno, OR 97601

$75,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 215 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,673/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $796/mo
• Annual: $9,551/yr
• Cap rate: 20.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.28%
• DSCR: 3.19
• 1% rule: 2.23%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $75k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 3.0% in Keno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.