19380 Collins Ave

Sunny Isles Beach, FL 33160

$438,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,297
• Tax + insurance: −$1,157
• HOA: −$933
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $-832/mo
• Annual: $-9,982/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $122,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $438k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-832 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $438k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $431k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in FL, #434 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1870 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 34 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $350k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 0.8% in Sunny Isles Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,500/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3106% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?