1414-1420 River Rd

San Marcos, TX 78666

$689,900D-

12 bd · 12.0 ba · 2,320 sqft · Built 2002 · MultiFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,638/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,618
• Tax + insurance: −$855
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,184
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-222/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $193,172

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $690k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-222/yr) — negative. Per door: $-5/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $687k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $564k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($649k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $564k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,638/mo this rent would consume 124% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 6504% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?