1399 Kirkwood Meadows Drive 228/230 Unit R220

Kirkwood, CA 95646

$60,000F

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · Built 1999 · Condo · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$1,146
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-515/mo
• Annual: $-6,186/yr
• Cap rate: -4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -36.82%
• DSCR: -0.64
• 1% rule: 2.23%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-515 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#575 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Alpine County Unified (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #546 of 1,400 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diamond Valley Elementary (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #496 of 1,571 statewide, top 34%, 61 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 50% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 86% of rent.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Alpine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alpine County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?