1603 Harper St

Lawrence, KS 66044

$169,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 853 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,360/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-520/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-520/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#1 in KS, #237 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Lawrence (urban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #46 of 169 in KS (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prairie Park Elem (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #507 of 684 statewide, top 78%, 376 students, 56% FRL); Lawrence High (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #82 of 327 statewide, top 25%, 1,589 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (38 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.