1238 N Ontario St

Toledo, OH 43604

$130,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,453 sqft · Built 1897 · SingleFamily · Active · 247 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,827/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $545/mo
• Annual: $6,541/yr
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.97%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,827/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($21k/yr) (locally 693% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Severe peeling and damage
• Major: exterior paint — Severe peeling and damage
• Major: interior paint — Visible wear and tear
• Major: kitchen cabinets — Old and worn-out
• Major: bathroom fixtures — Old and worn-out
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation