1298 SE Lake Rd

Southeast Arcadia, FL 34266

$65,600C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 843 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Pending · 349 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$344
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $96/mo
• Annual: $1,158/yr
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $18,368

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($851 rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $454 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#864 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Desoto (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 73 in FL (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 71 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeSoto County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.3% in Southeast Arcadia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.