3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,056 sqft ·
Built 1926
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 109 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,046/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$331
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$430
Net cashflow
$105/mo
Annual
$1,260/yr
Cap rate
6.85%
Cash-on-cash
2.00%
DSCR
1.09
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (9.1% below list).
It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Oak Park Elementary School (math 42% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 354 students, 90% FRL); Greco Middle Magnet School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 700 students, 77% FRL); Middleton High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,511 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $170k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,046/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2431% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RSM22H4E6TYRJ7
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29