86 Canal St

New York, NY 10002

$1,188,000F

None bd · None ba · 58,291 sqft · Built 2012 · Condo · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,518/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,230
• Tax + insurance: −$1,980
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$949
• Net cashflow: $-4,641/mo
• Annual: $-55,690/yr
• Cap rate: 1.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.74%
• DSCR: 0.26
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $332,640

Investor read

• This is a condo listed at $1.19M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-56k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $516k (56.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $452k (62.0% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.15M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $452k (62.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Mark Twain Is 239 For The Gifted And Talented (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #6 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 1,207 students, 44% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $810k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,518/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 7758% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.