2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,344 sqft ·
Built 1968
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,891/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,098
Tax + insurance
−$667
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$817
Net cashflow
$310/mo
Annual
$3,715/yr
Cap rate
7.22%
Cash-on-cash
3.32%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$112,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $389k (2.7% below list).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $388k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Ventura Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #218 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in San Buenaventura (Ventura) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,891/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 1724% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RT58ZD3W1N6M07
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29