531 S Pecan St

Nowata, OK 74048

$160,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,405/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (26.6% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $117k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#455 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nowata (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #234 of 270 in OK (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Nowata County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nowata County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.