3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,497 sqft ·
Built 2020
· Townhouse
· Active
· 85 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,323/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,573
Tax + insurance
−$621
HOA
−$280
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$488
Net cashflow
$-639/mo
Annual
$-7,665/yr
Cap rate
3.74%
Cash-on-cash
-9.13%
DSCR
0.59
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$84,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-639 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (37.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.6% below list).
It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $187k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Birdville ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Smithfield El (math 44% / reading 58%, grade C-, #818 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 610 students, 42% FRL); Smithfield Middle (math 80% / reading 59%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 821 students, 28% FRL); Birdville H S (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,086 students, 46% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Birdville ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 301 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RTFMJ4F9WSM2C8
· Data 3 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29