2839 Beall Packing Rd

Bonifay, FL 32425

$42,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax + insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $365/mo
• Annual: $4,385/yr
• Cap rate: 16.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.29%
• DSCR: 2.66
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $11,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($790 rent vs $42k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $41k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($290 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holmes (rural): math 44% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #53 of 73 in FL (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Holmes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Holmes County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.8% in Bonifay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.