4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,520 sqft ·
Built 2018
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,835/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,285
Tax + insurance
−$303
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$385
Net cashflow
$-138/mo
Annual
$-1,657/yr
Cap rate
5.94%
Cash-on-cash
-1.25%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$68,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (10.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (25.1% below list).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#119 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Benton School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #25 of 238 in AR (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 446 units permitted in Saline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Saline County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Benton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RTJ2CK8P70P3E4
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29