604 & 606 D Ave

Carrizozo, NM 88301

$150,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 420 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $143/mo
• Annual: $1,710/yr
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (13.5% below list).
• It's been on market 420 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#106 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, housing D, schools F.
• Carrizozo Municipal Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #11 of 29 in NM (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 420 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.