2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
946 sqft ·
Built 2023
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 167 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,888/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,337
Tax + insurance
−$567
HOA
−$204
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$397
Net cashflow
$-617/mo
Annual
$-7,401/yr
Cap rate
3.39%
Cash-on-cash
-10.37%
DSCR
0.54
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$71,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (42.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (25.9% below list).
It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $146k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Leesburg Elementary School (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 822 students, 71% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.4% in Leesburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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