2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
910 sqft ·
Built 1920
· Other
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$871/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$85
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$183
Net cashflow
$236/mo
Annual
$2,837/yr
Cap rate
10.35%
Cash-on-cash
14.50%
DSCR
1.64
1% rule
1.25%
Cash to close
$19,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($871 rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#585 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Central R-III (town): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #150 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Central Elem. (555 students, 62% FRL); Central High (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #51 of 521 statewide, top 11%, 629 students, 52% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Central R-III average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.7% in Park Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RTZ7X9EQ9FZN56
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29