5915 Rye Patch Rd

Gumbranch, GA 31316

$229,575C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,960/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-38/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $64,281

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-38/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcclelland Elementary School (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #728 of 1,228 statewide, top 60%, 931 students, 72% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.