16166 Par Cir SW

Pine City, MN 55063

$125,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · Built 1895 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,103/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $90/mo
• Annual: $1,086/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#370 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine City Public School District (town): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #222 of 301 in MN (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.5% in Pine City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.