21 Moselle Oak Grove Rd

Moselle, MS 39459

$174,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,257/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-709/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $48,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-709/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (27.8% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 12 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $174k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.