9143 Otter Pass

Westchase, FL 33626

$179,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$81
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $869/mo
• Annual: $10,431/yr
• Cap rate: 12.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.81%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#320 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Deer Park Elementary School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 989 students, 22% FRL); Sickles High School (math 52% / reading 65%, grade C, #116 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,368 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hillsborough average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $179k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.