53 River Rock St

Lincoln, AL 35096

$169,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,484 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Pending · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,377/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,037/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 48%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 62% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 585 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13142% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.