12229 Lookout Loop Unit F5-38

Truckee, CA 96161-4528

$18,000C-

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,985 sqft · Built 2004 · Timeshare · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax + insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$869
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,913
• Net cashflow: $6,203/mo
• Annual: $74,441/yr
• Cap rate: 419.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1477.00%
• DSCR: 66.72
• 1% rule: 50.61%
• Cash to close: $5,040

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath timeshare listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($74k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $664 of equity ($124 loan paydown + $540 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $18k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 419.9% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.