2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
826 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Manufactured
· Active
· 118 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,038/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$724
Tax + insurance
−$135
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$218
Net cashflow
$-39/mo
Annual
$-466/yr
Cap rate
5.96%
Cash-on-cash
-1.21%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$38,640
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-466/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (5.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (24.8% below list).
It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $104k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#395 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Sabine ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 826 in TX (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29