2023 Welsh Pony Dr

Mount Pleasant, SC 29429

$779,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,008 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,085
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,206
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-938/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $218,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $779k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-938/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $765k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $575k (26.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $575k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#46 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Charleston 01 (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #7 of 80 in SC (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles Pinckney Elementary (math 81% / reading 72%, grade A, #11 of 597 statewide, top 2%, 635 students, 14% FRL); Thomas C. Cario Middle (math 73% / reading 75%, grade A, #5 of 229 statewide, top 2%, 1,125 students, 15% FRL); Wando High (math 81% / reading 95%, grade A, #6 of 196 statewide, top 3%, 2,596 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools average 16% FRL vs 44% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+29 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charleston 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,156 units permitted in Charleston County in 2024 (857 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charleston County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $429k; list at $779k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.6% in Mount Pleasant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.