2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1960
· Manufactured
· Active
· 123 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,940/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$254
Tax + insurance
−$81
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$407
Net cashflow
$1,198/mo
Annual
$14,372/yr
Cap rate
35.93%
Cash-on-cash
105.83%
DSCR
5.71
1% rule
4.00%
Cash to close
$13,580
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $335 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#731 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Soulsbyville Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #272 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RYWX1J14VM8Z6K
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29