4109 Ridgeway Ln

Denton, TX 76226

$309,800D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,767/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax + insurance: −$636
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,448/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $86,744

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (10.7% below list).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1130 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — Dated appearance
• Minor: Kitchen countertops — Worn and outdated