844-48 Isthmus Ct

San Diego, CA 92109

$1,990,000D

6 bd · 4.5 ba · — sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,436
• Tax + insurance: −$3,743
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,767
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-77/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $557,200

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $1.99M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-77/yr) — negative. Per door: $-2/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.99M (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.79M (9.8% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.79M (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• San Diego Unified (urban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #393 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $17,940/mo this rent would consume 176% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 2981% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?