22742 Norcrest Hills Dr

Houston, TX 77449

$351,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,135 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,431/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,110
• Tax + insurance: −$670
• HOA: −$115
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-974/mo
• Annual: $-11,693/yr
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.38%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $112,638

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $352k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-974 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemmenway El (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,151 students, 82% FRL); Rowe Middle (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,310 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Park H S (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 2,960 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 43% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.