2621 Virginia Ave

Louisville, KY 40211

$420,000C+

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,500 sqft · Built 1915 · MultiFamily · Active · 287 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,934/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,036
• Net cashflow: $1,253/mo
• Annual: $15,031/yr
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.78%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $313/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $370k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $420k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,934/mo this rent would consume 186% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 1483% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?