5728 Oak Bend Ln #202

Oak Park, CA 91377

$353,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Active · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,851
• Tax + insurance: −$409
• HOA: −$595
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-571/mo
• Annual: $-6,856/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $98,840

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $353k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-571 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#410 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Oak Park Unified (suburban): math 71% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #26 of 517 in CA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Red Oak Elementary (math 75% / reading 79%, grade A, #81 of 1,571 statewide, top 5%, 584 students, 14% FRL); Medea Creek Middle (math 70% / reading 82%, grade A, #23 of 498 statewide, top 4%, 1,007 students, 14% FRL); Oak Park High (math 73% / reading 85%, grade A-, #51 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 1,401 students, 13% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $353k implies a 306% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.4% in Oak Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?