2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
816 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 264 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,379/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$268
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$290
Net cashflow
$-222/mo
Annual
$-2,668/yr
Cap rate
4.95%
Cash-on-cash
-4.79%
DSCR
0.79
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (19.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (30.7% below list).
It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $138k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Young El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 385 students, 99% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 10956% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29