299 Southview

Arcade, NY 14009

$69,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,624/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $733/mo
• Annual: $8,801/yr
• Cap rate: 20.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.04%
• DSCR: 3.18
• 1% rule: 2.32%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#774 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — Siding condition suggests potential underlying roof issues
• Major: flooring — Overall condition suggests need for replacement
• Major: interior walls/paint — Overall condition suggests need for repainting
• Major: kitchen — Overall condition suggests need for updates
• Major: bathrooms — Overall condition suggests need for updates