2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,281 sqft ·
Built 1995
· Condo
· Active
· 181 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,822/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$154
HOA
−$810
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$803
Net cashflow
$745/mo
Annual
$8,938/yr
Cap rate
9.87%
Cash-on-cash
12.77%
DSCR
1.57
1% rule
1.53%
Cash to close
$70,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $745 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $737 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $110k; list at $250k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,822/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S2N6V266GYASXK
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29