1562 Morgan St

Jacksonville, FL 32209

$410,000C-

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,776 sqft · Built 1971 · MultiFamily · Active · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $651/mo
• Annual: $7,812/yr
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.80%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $114,800

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $163/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $391k (4.6% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $361k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $307k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,911/mo this rent would consume 154% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.