3300 15th Street West #109

Rosamond, CA 93560

$105,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,140/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $965/mo
• Annual: $11,580/yr
• Cap rate: 17.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.39%
• DSCR: 2.75
• 1% rule: 2.04%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $965 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Westpark Elementary (940 students, 78% FRL); Tropico Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 782 students, 80% FRL); Rosamond High Early College Campus (913 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 463 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.