1505 Seventh

Hot Springs, AR 71913

$199,000C

4 bd · 0.0 ba · 2,688 sqft · Built 1930 · MultiFamily · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $560/mo
• Annual: $6,723/yr
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.07%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $280/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,450/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1442% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?