12626 Ashford Meadows Dr

Houston, TX 77082

$339,000C+

8 bd · 8.0 ba · 3,746 sqft · Built 1981 · MultiFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$992
• HOA: −$360
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,015
• Net cashflow: $690/mo
• Annual: $8,275/yr
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.11%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2.0-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $172/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $339k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $334k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: O'Donnell Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 1,230 students, 89% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,834/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 3722% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.