1170 Walnut St

Baker City, OR 97814

$129,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $937/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,053/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (27.8% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#92 in OR, #4,611 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Baker SD 5J (town): math 36% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #68 of 183 in OR (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brooklyn Primary School (reading 75%, 279 students, 67% FRL); South Baker Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #43 of 128 statewide, top 34%, 275 students, 68% FRL); Baker High School (503 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 40% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Baker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baker County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $130k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.0% in Baker City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?