3920 Thornton St

Pace, FL 32571

$240,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,032/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,186
• Tax + insurance: −$377
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $500/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $63,350

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($500/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (15.3% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $203k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: S. S. Dixon Intermediate School (math 73% / reading 67%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 920 students, 40% FRL); Thomas L Sims Middle School (math 77% / reading 65%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,098 students, 34% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.