10-12 Shelburne St

Burlington, VT 05401

$439,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,008 sqft · Built 1899 · SingleFamily · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$732
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$743
• Net cashflow: $-240/mo
• Annual: $-2,875/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $404k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (19.4% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $354k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Edmunds Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #50 of 192 statewide, top 32%, 228 students, 53% FRL); Lyman C. Hunt Middle School (math 34% / reading 47%, grade F, #13 of 26 statewide, top 52%, 337 students, 49% FRL); Burlington High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #8 of 48 statewide, top 15%, 987 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,537/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — dated and in poor condition
• Major: bathroom fixtures — outdated and cluttered
• Major: flooring — dated and in poor condition
• Major: interior walls — paint peeling and cluttered spaces
• Major: exterior siding — deteriorating condition
• Major: windows — old and single-pane