12807 Mason Rd NE

Pleasant Grove, MD 21502

$69,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$504
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $169/mo
• Annual: $2,034/yr
• Cap rate: 16.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.54%
• DSCR: 2.63
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#383 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $70k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.