9467 Morganhill Rd

Sylvania, OH 43560

$299,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-495/mo
• Annual: $-5,937/yr
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.07%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-495 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (30.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#18 in OH, #191 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Sylvania Schools (suburban): math 63% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #157 of 656 in OH (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elementary School (math 84% / reading 81%, grade A+, #106 of 1,584 statewide, top 7%, 659 students, 7% FRL); Sylvania Northview High School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade B, #130 of 781 statewide, top 17%, 1,352 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Sylvania — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.