2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,094 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 84 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,431/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$320
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$301
Net cashflow
$-55/mo
Annual
$-658/yr
Cap rate
6.38%
Cash-on-cash
0.30%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-658/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (5.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (13.3% below list).
It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $143k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $34 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#456 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Bartow Elementary Academy (math 55% / reading 72%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 518 students, 31% FRL); Frostproof Middle/Senior High (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,150 students, 60% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $88k; list at $165k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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