3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
888 sqft ·
Built 1955
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,538/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,291
Tax + insurance
−$474
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$743
Net cashflow
$30/mo
Annual
$358/yr
Cap rate
6.37%
Cash-on-cash
0.29%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$122,345
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($358/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $345k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#842 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Frank P Long Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,702 of 2,108 statewide, top 82%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Bellport Middle School (math 64% / reading 54%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 838 students, 56% FRL); Bellport Senior High School (math 86% / reading 64%, grade A-, #630 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,392 students, 52% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $300k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in North Bellport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-S6ZHN720GTH8HV
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29