264 Mayflower

Newport Beach, CA 92660

$484,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1965 · Manufactured · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,583/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,538
• Tax + insurance: −$807
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$962
• Net cashflow: $275/mo
• Annual: $3,305/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $135,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $484k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $458k (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $455k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#101 in CA, #3,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Abraham Lincoln Elementary (math 67%, 306 students, 32% FRL); Corona Del Mar High (math 55% / reading 63%, grade C+, #221 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 2,059 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $239k; list at $484k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 0.6% in Newport Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.