1449 Lexington Way

Lewisburg, TN 37091

$219,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,418 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,904/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,992/yr
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $61,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (13.4% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $190k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#284 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove Elementary (471 students, 0% FRL); Westhills Elementary (math 29% / reading 23%, grade F, #144 of 333 statewide, top 44%, 603 students, 0% FRL); Marshall Co High School (math 17% / reading 35%, grade F, #117 of 332 statewide, top 37%, 815 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 445 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 128d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.