414 S Henry St

Geneseo, IL 61254

$194,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Pending · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,027/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $231/mo
• Annual: $2,773/yr
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.08%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elem School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #749 of 2,056 statewide, top 40%, 364 students, 0% FRL); Geneseo Middle School (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #450 of 665 statewide, top 69%, 591 students, 0% FRL); Geneseo High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 809 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 18% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $195k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.